Offseason-market thoughts

Haven't used this blog for a long time now, but since I am spending too much time at home as of lateky, I thought I might as wellpost a tought or two. This way, I might actually cut down the irrelevant rants I've been doing at the Slamonline comment section! (If you are not into Slamonline, you might want to check it out at http://www.slamonline.com)
To the point now: since the first Kobe-wants-to-be-traded, then-takes-it-back saga, I've been thinking about this: When is the right time to trade your Superstar/franchise talent/All star (whatever of the above you might have on the roster), if you know your championship window of opportunity is closing? As indicated by the whole Celtics situation (Ainge not including Al Jefferson in a Garnett trade, being lambasted for trading for Ray Allen in exchange to Jeff Green) the critical point must be before thirty. Indeed, would any of you trade lots of young talent and draft picks for the likes of Garnett, Jamison, Billups, A or B Miller (C Miller is not an option, though, and don't get me started on her bro)? Would any of them pretty much guarantee a Finals Appearance, the way Shq did for the Heat? Have in mind that the bigger the name, the bigger the trade value you must give up. Tim Duncan is the obvious exception here, but this is only to verify the General Rule: 30+ players are not a good foundation for your building
Wich moves us to the lower limit: what is the maximum age limit for a guy that you want to built a championship team around? From the recent Rashard Lewis signing, we get the message that at least some teams, with championship caliber big men, are willing to start building around a 27 year old. Plus, the fact that guys like Okur, Baron, Tmac, Brand, Maggette, Odom, Michael Redd, even Hughes sound like keepers, well, that must say something. Ron Ron would belong in this list if he wasn't to put it in nice words, a clinical case. Insanity is a market spoiler unaffected by age!

On the other hand, 28-year olds are a mixed group. The most notable ones are: The Matrix, Dirk, JO, KOBE, Rip, Bibby, KMart, Stephen WHOOO Jackson, and maybe Tinsley and Shane Battier. The only ones that haven't been talked about for a trade are Dirk (although this might suggest otherwise) and Hamilton and that's because they are in championship wiining situations. Even Marion is on the block, despite his Suns finishing second in the league with an astounding 61-21 record. The fact that you are not hearing much about certain guys, has to do with their trade value being seriously lower than their on-court value, either due to injuries, or the always catastrophic insanity). The remarkable thing about all the trade rumours concerning those guys, is that in every scenario that's been brought up, they bring back almost equal trade value (if you take into consideration the age a nd salary factors, ofcourse.

This is not the case with most of the players that are just one year older. Starbury, Francis (duh), Vince, JET, Pierce, Peja, Ginobili and MoPete aren't the hot commodities they used to be. Eventhough some of then haven't fallen of that much (Pierce and Terry most notably), others have seen their value diminished the past couple of years, either due to injuries or due to consinstently failing to deliver at the level they used to do. I can't even imagine a trade for Peja that would land even half the value the Kings would have got if they traded him in the summer of 05.
So, to wrap up this (long winded) post, the moral lesson of the past few years mistakes is: Don't hang too long on your "franchise players" . Despite what the fans or the talking heads might say, if you haven't started wiining until they are 28, you probably won't win in the future either. Trade them away, and cut you losses. It's better for everyone:
For the team- You get to start fresh, with a few young guys and extra draft picks (not to mention the cap space) an all the future at your feet. There is nothing more marketanle than hope (well, except a perennial contender, but it's the next best thing)
For the players- They are not stuck in a rebuilding team and they might contend for a ring, if they are lucky. Wich in turn-
Is good for the fans- They get to see the best players in the league happy, playing for good teams, and hopefuly, playing meaningful games, come June. This is a win win situation. Now, if we just could get the GMs to buy in on that...