Thursday, July 12, 2007

The Portland expiriment

The hot subject of the current offseason is definitely the Blazers and their attempt to build around the Centerpiece they got in the draft. Some experts are excited, others are concerned there might have been some questionable moves, but the consensus is that thefranchise finds itself in a really good situation.
I know everybody has an opinion on the subject, but I am really intrigued and I don't think I can keep myself from giving up my two cents on the subject. Besides, isn't this what the whole Blogging stuff is about? Here it is, then:
The most important person
for the Blazers franchiseis undoubtedly Paul Allen. The multimillionaire, after a string of questionable hirings that led to the "Jailblazers" team, now seems to have gotten the right persons to lead his business to prominence. The most important fact though, is that he is providing Nate Mc Millan and Kevin Pritchard with whatever they ask him. Mr Allen might be a very rich guy, but that doesn't mean he had to pay 33.6 million for a player that would never wear a Blazers jersey.
With that said, the rest of the Blazers pesonnel isn't looking half bad. The afformentioned Presti must have had the best back to back drafts since the Jazz drafted Stockton and Malone in the 84 and 85 drafts respectively. on the other hand, McMillan might have not showed the results that he displayed in Seattle, but he had to work with a team that can hardly be described as a McMillan kind of squad. Besides, it took him some years to deliver in Seattle too, and he had the best imaginable situation there, as far as respect from the franchise and players go.
As for the guys that actually get to compete in the court, you can argue that it's the greatest concentration of talent in the league you've got here. Raw talent, it might be, but still. The Blazers as of now have 15 players under contract. If you assume Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Kopponen are staying in Europe for another year and that they'll excersise the teams option forTravis Outlaw fourth year (Ime Udoka is most likely not going to be resigned, with Jones' acquisition), then we have:

  • Gregg Oden
  • Brandon Roy
  • LaMarcus Albridge
  • Chnning Frye
  • Jarrett Jack
  • James Jones
  • Martell Webster
  • Sergio Rodriguez
  • Travis Outlaw
  • Taurean Green
  • Josh McRoberts
  • Joel Przybilla
  • Raef LaFrentz
  • Darius Miles
(The names are in a Value-to-the-franchise order)


It is more than obvious, that there are 5 groups of guys in this list:

First, are the Cornerstones. Oden and Roy. Roy and Oden, if you want to keep seniority in place. If the Lakers proposed a trade giving up Kobe and a future first rounder for those two guys, I am sure the Blazers paople would laugh. And with good cause! The duo is pretty much untradable, except if something apsurd is proposed in return for the R.O.Y.
Then come the keepers. Jarrett Jack,
James Jones, Channing Frye and LaMarcus Albridge might not project as perennial al stars (with the possible exception of the latter), but certainly have the quality to be starters in an NBA team. They provide a nice array of skills (defence, shooting, shot blocking, athleticism, rebounding) and the team figures they will be Blazers for a long time.
Next up, are the projects. Webster, Rodriguez, and Outlaw were all First rounders with great potential, but they haven't been able to consistently show that talent in the court. They are still young, and they can atleast be solid role players for this club. Martell' s shooting touch, Travis' shot blocking and athletic ability, and Sergio's court vision can really be the difference between a contender and a Dynasty.
Closing out the group of players that might have a future with the team, are the Longshots. Taurean Green, Josh Mc Roberts and stashed in Europe Draft picks Fernandez and Kopponen, have the talent to be important parts, but to find PT some of the previous players must fail to fullfill the roles that the mangement projects for them. Fernandezis slightly different, since hae is a big name overseas, and might never want to come if he thinks he won't have an important role with the club.
The last three names in this list are of negative value, luggage carried from the franchise's worst period, that followed an impressive streak of 21 concecutive Playoffs appearances. LaFrentz's contract is mostky irrelevant, if Allen was willing to buyout Steve Francis, he would do the same, should Pritchard requested so. If he isn't gonna cause any problems, or the Blazers don't want to use the spot he's taking up in the Roster, he might serve as the most expensive practise dummy in NBA history, for the next couple of years. Przybilla might be overpaid, but he is big, can block a shot or two, and with a couple of second rounders to sweeten the deal, there might be a team that will take him for a contract expiring in the summer of 2009. (more on this timemark in a bit).

The Darius Miles issue, though, is quite complex. He's got another 34 million in his deal, that will be off the salary cap no sooner than 2010. At first glance, this looks fine, their projected to be key guys aren't going to be out of the rookie scale until the summer of 2011 or later. This way, they can make a run at a freeagent in the previous offseason, to fix any holes in the roster they might have, and make some serious runs on that coveted trophy. If you take a closer look, though, you'll see that they have three players that will demand an extension in that same summer. If they don't want to have the same dilemma the Magic had with Darko and Rashard, they'll want to move Miles' contract earlier. If they can do that, with Lafrentz and Francis off the books, they'll get themselfs a chance for a quick fix, just in case. That, of course, if they don't give James Jones a Max deal earlier!
So, to sum it all up, it's more than clear that the Oregon state has finally a potential champion to root for. So, barring a serious injury, or immense stupidity by the front office, it might be 1977 again before long, in Portland. More than once, this time, too!


Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Offseason-market thoughts


Haven't used this blog for a long time now, but since I am spending too much time at home as of lateky, I thought I might as wellpost a tought or two. This way, I might actually cut down the irrelevant rants I've been doing at the Slamonline comment section! (If you are not into Slamonline, you might want to check it out at http://www.slamonline.com)
To the point now: since the first Kobe-wants-to-be-traded, then-takes-it-back saga, I've been thinking about this: When is the right time to trade your Superstar/franchise talent/All star (whatever of the above you might have on the roster), if you know your championship window of opportunity is closing? As indicated by the whole Celtics situation (Ainge not including Al Jefferson in a Garnett trade, being lambasted for trading for Ray Allen in exchange to Jeff Green) the critical point must be before thirty. Indeed, would any of you trade lots of young talent and draft picks for the likes of Garnett, Jamison, Billups, A or B Miller (C Miller is not an option, though, and don't get me started on her bro)? Would any of them pretty much guarantee a Finals Appearance, the way Shq did for the Heat? Have in mind that the bigger the name, the bigger the trade value you must give up. Tim Duncan is the obvious exception here, but this is only to verify the General Rule: 30+ players are not a good foundation for your building
Wich moves us to the lower limit: what is the maximum age limit for a guy that you want to built a championship team around? From the recent Rashard Lewis signing, we get the message that at least some teams, with championship caliber big men, are willing to start building around a 27 year old. Plus, the fact that guys like Okur, Baron, Tmac, Brand, Maggette, Odom, Michael Redd, even Hughes sound like keepers, well, that must say something. Ron Ron would belong in this list if he wasn't to put it in nice words, a clinical case. Insanity is a market spoiler unaffected by age!

On the other hand, 28-year olds are a mixed group. The most notable ones are: The Matrix, Dirk, JO, KOBE, Rip, Bibby, KMart, Stephen WHOOO Jackson, and maybe Tinsley and Shane Battier. The only ones that haven't been talked about for a trade are Dirk (although this might suggest otherwise) and Hamilton and that's because they are in championship wiining situations. Even Marion is on the block, despite his Suns finishing second in the league with an astounding 61-21 record. The fact that you are not hearing much about certain guys, has to do with their trade value being seriously lower than their on-court value, either due to injuries, or the always catastrophic insanity). The remarkable thing about all the trade rumours concerning those guys, is that in every scenario that's been brought up, they bring back almost equal trade value (if you take into consideration the age a nd salary factors, ofcourse.

This is not the case with most of the players that are just one year older. Starbury, Francis (duh), Vince, JET, Pierce, Peja, Ginobili and MoPete aren't the hot commodities they used to be. Eventhough some of then haven't fallen of that much (Pierce and Terry most notably), others have seen their value diminished the past couple of years, either due to injuries or due to consinstently failing to deliver at the level they used to do. I can't even imagine a trade for Peja that would land even half the value the Kings would have got if they traded him in the summer of 05.
So, to wrap up this (long winded) post, the moral lesson of the past few years mistakes is: Don't hang too long on your "franchise players" . Despite what the fans or the talking heads might say, if you haven't started wiining until they are 28, you probably won't win in the future either. Trade them away, and cut you losses. It's better for everyone:
For the team- You get to start fresh, with a few young guys and extra draft picks (not to mention the cap space) an all the future at your feet. There is nothing more marketanle than hope (well, except a perennial contender, but it's the next best thing)
For the players- They are not stuck in a rebuilding team and they might contend for a ring, if they are lucky. Wich in turn-
Is good for the fans- They get to see the best players in the league happy, playing for good teams, and hopefuly, playing meaningful games, come June. This is a win win situation. Now, if we just could get the GMs to buy in on that...

Wednesday, May 9, 2007